I’ve been giving the BCS Bowls a bit of thought the past few days. Sure, it’s a mess with the Big 12 right now, but it could get much worse and some teams which deserve to play in a BCS bowl can be left out. Certain to play in a BCS Bowl right now are Cincinnati (Big East champ) and Penn State (Big Ten champ). The SEC champion will almost certainly play in the BCS Championship game, I expect the winner of that game to be ranked number 1 in the final polls.
Oklahoma should win their game against Missouri, otherwise the Big 12 will be represented by Texas and Missouri. This scenario would reduce the pain in Missouri a bit for not getting the at-large berth last season, when Kansas was favored over them to go to the Orange Bowl. If Oklahoma beats Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas will play in a BCS Bowl.
The ACC will most likely only have a team in the Orange Bowl, either Boston College or Virginia Tech will play there. I don’t expect Georgia Tech to be favored to go to a BCS Bowl over Boise State. The PAC-10 is most likely for USC, unless they lose to UCLA in which case both Oregon State and USC will play in a BCS Bowl. And as the highest ranked non-BCS team, Utah will go to a BCS Bowl as well.
So we end up with the following teams which are certain of a BCS Bowl: Alabama, Florida, Texas, USC, Cincinnati, Penn State and Utah. For the three remaining spots, one will most certainly go to either Missouri or Oklahoma and another to Boston College or Virginia Tech. The last spot will either go to Oregon State (when UCLA beats USC) or Boise State. I don’t think Georgia Tech and Ball State will have a chance to get in, despite having a great season.
Another big question will be who will play in the National Championship game. Normally, that would be the Big 12 versus the SEC. But what will happen in the following scenarios: Alabama losing a close game to Florida, Oklahoma losing to Missouri and Alabama beating Florida, Florida beating Alabama with a big score and an Oklahoma loss or finally unconvincing wins in both title games and a huge victory by USC? The first scenario might result in a rematch in Miami between Alabama and Florida, while in the second scenario Texas and Alabama most likely will play each other. The two other scenarios are interesting, as in those cases it will be difficult to select two teams from four contenders (Florida, Alabama, Texas and USC).
