Haven’t had any time to really think about the BCS Bowl matchups until this weekend. And while a lot has already been written about it, it’s time to add my thoughts to the debate. And I must say, for one thing the BCS bowls all look decent matches with teams that will make an interesting match. I’ll go through the Bowls chronological, starting with the Rose Bowl and ending with the National Championship game. I’ll make some early guesses, my predictions will come closer to the new year.
The Rose Bowl has two interesting teams, that have equally impressive numbers. USC would have played for the National Championship if they hadn’t slipped their attention against Oregon State, but was also lucky that Oregon State lost to Oregon. And the Nittany Lions have had an exceptional season, ending the rule of Ohio State in the Big 10 and nearly getting into the National Championship game as well. Now, the Pac-10 and Big 10 are both conferences which are struggling a bit. In the Pac-10 the only national contender is USC, although almost all of the teams can beat USC for an upset. And the Big 10 has two strong teams (Ohio State and Penn State), with hardly any other teams worth noting. But the tradition of both conferences makes this an interesting game. Both teams are equally impressive on offense and while USC has dominated Big 10 opponents in recent years, it remains to be seen how this game will play out. My guess right now is that Penn State will win this one, which can be considered an upset.
The Orange Bowl has the least inspiring teams participating. Cincinnati won the Big East, but its numbers are not particularly impressive. And Virginia Tech returns to the Orange Bowl as the ACC champion. But to be honest, the ACC lost a lot of its credibility and most teams are in a rebuilding phase. But that makes the Orange Bowl interesting this year. Cincinnati will try to prove that the Big East is a conference that deserves a spot in the BCS Bowls. And Virginia Tech will try to wash away the bad taste of defeat from last year when the Kansas Jayhawks pulled a major upset in Miami. Not the best bowl if we look at it right now, but interesting to see which team will win. My guess is Virginia Tech, no way they will lose twice in a row in what may be considered an upset.
Utah versus Alabama in the Sugar Bowl is the only game in which I clearly see a winner up front. Alabama will be too strong for Utah, I don’t see Utah do what Boise State did against Oklahoma a few years ago. The SEC is one of the strongest conferences and the Alabama defense will send the Utah offense back to bench quickly every time. And while Utah has every right to be in this game, I fear they will get a beating like Hawaii last year. My guess: Alabama all the way.
The Fiesta Bowl has an Ohio State team that in my opinion doesn’t deserve to be in a BCS Bowl. I think Boise State has had a more impressive season and should have gotten this spot. And if Oregon State hadn’t lost to Oregon, this one would have been for USC. But against Texas, it might be for the best that it’s Ohio State and not Boise State. At least the matchup is a bit more balanced, but I fear Texas will be too strong. And Texas still has its eyes on the number one position, so it will be motivated to outperform OSU. Texas has too many weapons for Ohio State to deal with and in big games Ohio State underperforms. So this one will go to the Longhorns.
Florida and Oklahoma both deserve to be competing for the National Championship. While the selection of Oklahoma is not without controversy, after beating Mizzou in an impressive manner there was no way Texas could take this spot. And to be fair, Oklahoma has played top quality football all season, even in their loss against Texas. And a match against Florida is one that we all are looking forward to. Tim Tebow against Sam Bradford, two great offenses and good coaching on both sides of the field. I can’t predict a winner, this one will be close I guess. An early guess would be Florida, I think they are a bit more balanced than Oklahoma. But there really isn’t much that separates the teams and it could easily be Oklahoma that walks away with the win. Definitely a classic in the making, as long as both teams live up to the expectations.
The Fighting Illini are responsible for a nice upset against Ohio State and had quality wins against Penn State and Wisconsin, but also lost against Michigan, Missouri and Iowa. I’m not sure how strong they really are, but I don’t think they can beat USC. USC had a pretty bad year, for USC standards. The loss at Stanford basically ended their run for the big game, followed by that loss at Oregon sealing the deal. But in the remainder of the season USC showed that they are probably one of the strongest teams right now (with Oklahoma). So the Rose Bowl will once again go to USC.
Hawaii is having a great season, going 12-0. But they have played only against one ranked opponent, Boise State. So it’s understandable why there is little BCS love for Hawaii. But they love to play football, showing that you can win games while having fun doing it. That might be the key to success against Georgia. I’ve seen Georgia play a few times, against Alabama, Florida and Auburn. They’ve impressed me in those matches and I have to go with Georgia to win this one.
Probably one of the more exciting Bowl games this year. Oklahoma is in my opinion one of the strongest teams right now, West Virginia had another good season. The path to success for WVU is in their passing game, with OU not very strong against the pass. The running game of WVU is solid, but so is OU’s run defense. I think Oklahoma is better in every aspect of the game and will walk away with the win. My prediction: Oklahoma Sooners.
Seen as the weakest of the five Bowl games, this one has written Virginia Tech all over it. The Jayhawks had a great season, but their spot should have gone to Missouri. Virginia Tech is probably stronger and faster on both offense and defense, which has many pick the Hokies as the winner here. But I go with Kansas for two reasons. First, I need an upset in my predictions. And second and most importantly, the most wonderful woman I know is from Kansas, so I feel morally obliged to pick them. Not the best of reasons, but they work for me.
Ohio State was the favorite before the season started. Then came the Illinois game and everything seemed lost. But the other teams crumbled under the pressure, giving Ohio State a chance to redeem themselves after their loss against Florida last year. LSU lost twice, against Kentucky and Arkansas, and have won a number of very close games. In my opinion they should have lost at least two of the three games against Florida, Alabama and Auburn. Not losing those games make the LSU Tigers my favorites to win this one.