Big 12 South: The road to KC

The final week of the regular season in the Big 12 didn’t bring many surprises, besides the victory of Kansas over Mizzou. In the South, all three contenders for the championship and the right to play next week in Kansas City for the Big 12 title won their games. Texas had a pretty easy and solid game against Texas A&M. Beating the Aggies 49-9 showed that Texas hasn’t slowed down and is the front-runner in the eyes of many. Especially since the Longhorns have beaten the Sooners on a neutral field.

Oklahoma makes a strong case as well. Beating the ranked 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys by 20 points and scoring over 60 points in the last four games, the Sooners are the team that is most impressive at the end of the regular season. Especially since one of those over-60 games was against Texas Tech, then ranked number 2 in the BCS. The loss against the Longhorns makes this a very tough decision.

Texas Tech barely won the game at home against Baylor, a loss would have handed the Big 12 South to Texas. In my opinion, the performance against Oklahoma takes Texas Tech out of the race for the Big 12 title game. Getting a beating like that shows you’re not good enough to compete in the final weeks of the season. And with the performance against Baylor not impressive as well, it’s basically between the Longhorns and Sooners.

Which team should represent the Big 12 South in Kansas City? In my view that would be the Sooners. Their performance in recent weeks has been impressive and makes the loss against Texas less relevant. Also, they should be rewarded for playing against stronger opponents outside their own conference.

But this doesn’t mean that Texas is completely out of the picture. In fact, if the Sooners go to KC and lose to Mizzou, Texas will play either Alabama or Florida for the National Championship. Missouri made sure they won’t be considered for that game, even if they beat a much stronger opponent from the Big 12 South. Losing to Kansas ended their season at 9-3, they would have had a chance and a good argument if they would have finished 11-2 after the title game. But either Texas or Oklahoma will finish with one loss, so even if Mizzou wins the Big 12 Championship next week, one of those teams will be ranked higher. And the representative of the Big 12 South better makes sure they win the game next week, otherwise their biggest will play in Miami.

Update: The USA Today poll for this week has Oklahoma 1 point ahead of Texas. The waiting is for the Harris poll (which had Oklahoma ahead last week) and the computer rankings. Based on the tougher opponent this week for Oklahoma, I think the Sooners will be going to Kansas City and face Missouri.

Update 2: As expected, Oklahoma jumped ahead of Texas due to the strength of their schedule in the computer rankings. They will now face the Missouri Tigers and every Longhorn fan is praying for an upset by Mizzou next week.

Rose Bowl: Penn State will face Oregon State or USC

The Nittany Lions take the Big Ten in an impressive way, beating Michigan State 49-18 in their last game. And as a result, Penn State will travel to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl. Personally, I like the fact that Ohio State doesn’t go to a major BCS bowl this season. On the national stage, with all eyes focused on them, Ohio State has disappointed the past few years and even this year at USC.

The chances for Penn State in the Rose Bowl depend on their opponent. I don’t think they will have the odds in their favor if they have to play USC. Their chances are much better against Oregon State, as they have beaten them 45-14 in week 2 this season. But a game between Penn State and Oregon State is much less interesting than a game with USC, so I think the Penn State fans are hoping Oregon will upset Oregon State next week.

OU messes up Big 12 South

With a big win over Texas Tech, Oklahoma made things complicated in the Big 12. Now a three-way tie and only one week to go, the debates over who wins the Big 12 South surely heat up. An easy way out would be a loss for Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, which would give the division to Texas Tech. This is also the only way out, as I don’t see Texas losing to Texas A&M and/or Texas Tech losing to Baylor.

If all three teams win, the debate will go between Oklahoma and Texas. Texas Tech took to big a beating at OU to be considered the top team in the Big 12. My pick would be OU, as they have been very strong the past few weeks. But an equally convincing argument could be made for Texas.

The Big 12 is clearly the best conference this year. But things are messy and could even go more messy when Mizzou decides to win the Big 12 Championship game. As Mizzou is not a BCS Championship contender, finishing 11-2 (if they beat Kansas next week) still would make them a long shot. In that case even USC can hope for the BCS Championship, especially when Oregon State picks up the Pac-10.

The final weeks of the regular season will be interesting. Now if only my favorites, Notre Dame, could upset USC next week…

BCS Bowls predictions: my score so far

Three BCS Bowl games are behind us, time for a little update. Of the three games, I predicted 2 correctly. That’s not too bad, but I feel the Sooners really let me down a bit. I still believe that the Sooners were one of the two teams that should be in the National Championship game, based on their performance at the end of the season.

USC thrashed the Illini, as expected. There is little doubt in my mind that USC is the best team right now. Too bad they didn’t play Georgia, which is a team that could challenge USC. A Rose Bowl with Georgia and USC and a Sugar Bowl with the Illini and Hawaii would have given us more excitement than we’ve had now. But then again, we wouldn’t have known where to put Hawaii.

One last thought, I’m not sure if going from WVU to Michigan is a step up at all. Both teams played great football, but I feel WVU can be a true contender next year. For Michigan, there is always Ohio State that has to be defeated first. And I’m not sure if that will be likely next year, since it’s more a mental issue than an athletic issue for Michigan to win that game.

Rose Bowl: USC beats Illinois, correct pick
Sugar Bowl: Georgia beats Hawaii, correct pick
Fiesta Bowl: WVU beats OU, wrong pick

My BCS Bowl predictions

Today are the first BCS Bowl games. And that gives me the possibility to give my opinion on these games and predict a winner. I’ve seen quite a few games (although the coverage on NASN is mainly focused on the SEC), but it’s still hard to follow college football from Europe.

Illinois vs. USC

The Fighting Illini are responsible for a nice upset against Ohio State and had quality wins against Penn State and Wisconsin, but also lost against Michigan, Missouri and Iowa. I’m not sure how strong they really are, but I don’t think they can beat USC. USC had a pretty bad year, for USC standards. The loss at Stanford basically ended their run for the big game, followed by that loss at Oregon sealing the deal. But in the remainder of the season USC showed that they are probably one of the strongest teams right now (with Oklahoma). So the Rose Bowl will once again go to USC.

Hawaii vs. Georgia

Hawaii is having a great season, going 12-0. But they have played only against one ranked opponent, Boise State. So it’s understandable why there is little BCS love for Hawaii. But they love to play football, showing that you can win games while having fun doing it. That might be the key to success against Georgia. I’ve seen Georgia play a few times, against Alabama, Florida and Auburn. They’ve impressed me in those matches and I have to go with Georgia to win this one.

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma

Probably one of the more exciting Bowl games this year. Oklahoma is in my opinion one of the strongest teams right now, West Virginia had another good season. The path to success for WVU is in their passing game, with OU not very strong against the pass. The running game of WVU is solid, but so is OU’s run defense. I think Oklahoma is better in every aspect of the game and will walk away with the win. My prediction: Oklahoma Sooners.

Kansas vs. Virginia Tech

Seen as the weakest of the five Bowl games, this one has written Virginia Tech all over it. The Jayhawks had a great season, but their spot should have gone to Missouri. Virginia Tech is probably stronger and faster on both offense and defense, which has many pick the Hokies as the winner here. But I go with Kansas for two reasons. First, I need an upset in my predictions. And second and most importantly, the most wonderful woman I know is from Kansas, so I feel morally obliged to pick them. Not the best of reasons, but they work for me.

LSU vs. Ohio State

Ohio State was the favorite before the season started. Then came the Illinois game and everything seemed lost. But the other teams crumbled under the pressure, giving Ohio State a chance to redeem themselves after their loss against Florida last year. LSU lost twice, against Kentucky and Arkansas, and have won a number of very close games. In my opinion they should have lost at least two of the three games against Florida, Alabama and Auburn. Not losing those games make the LSU Tigers my favorites to win this one.