Super Bowl prediction

Being on business trips back-to-back (first to Munich, then to Orlando last week), kept me from posting any new insights on the Super Bowl. Now, being just a couple of hours before the game, it’s time to make a prediction.

Lots has already been written, so a brief analysis will do. The Patriots are the favorite for this game, they’re simply stronger in every aspect of the game. And still being undefeated works in their favor. But the Giants have impressed me on the road and they might achieve what the Steelers did in Super Bowl XL. If the final game of the regular season can be any indication (I don’t think so), the Giants seem to have the weapons to beat the Patriots.

Anyway we look at it, this is one great matchup. The NFC has a contender that is strong enough to at least give us the impression the domination of the AFC will be broken. And the rivalry between New York and Boston is always good for a game. But like the Yankees not being up to the challenge of the Red Sox, I don’t see the Giants walk away with this one either.

So my pick for the Super Bowl XLII Champions: the New England Patriots.

Possible Super Bowl matches

With the AFC and NFC Championship games being played this weekend, there are only four possible match-ups for the Super Bowl. Some of them look better than others, so let?s take a look at each of them.

Green Bay vs New England
This one is the wet dream of every football fan. The two best quarterbacks this season, both already legends. Brett Favre is one of the best all-time, his stats prove that. And you can?t be any bigger than Favre is right now in Green Bay. Tom Brady is also a legend, getting three Super Bowl victories already. And his stats this season are brilliant, as the game against Jacksonville showed last week.

But can this game live up to the expectations? On paper it looks good, Green Bay certainly has the defense to stop New England. But as we?ve seen, you need more to stop Brady from executing. I don?t think Green Bay has the offensive weapons to stay in this game until the end and the Patriots will simply be too strong. Then again, Favre can create a scoring drive out of nothing. So this one certainly will be interesting.

New York Giants vs New England
Is there a bigger rivalry possible than those between Boston and New York? I know, technically the Patriots are not from Boston, but still. This one will bring up the best and worst in fans in both cities. There is so much more on the line than just a win in the Super Bowl, it?s about the honor of the city.

But looking at the game, I don?t think New England will have a lot of trouble with the Giants. The Giants have been inconsistent all season, even with Manning finding some stability in the final games. They will need Eli to play once again at his best, and even then I don?t give them much of a chance. But you?ll never know, in these rivalry games anything can happen.

And more remarkable, the Giants and the Patriots played each other in the last game of pre-season and the last game of the regular season. Wouldn?t it be nice to have them play the final game of the post-season as well?

Green Bay vs San Diego
This game brings nothing extra to the Super Bowl. San Diego has a nice team and is doing great this post-season, but there is not very much emotion. They did a remarkable job against Indianapolis, but that win can be put completely on the inability of Peyton Manning not to finish it.

Looking at the game, I think Green Bay would prefer the Chargers above the Patriots. They have a good shot at winning the Super Bowl against them. Both teams are about equal in strength, but I favor Green Bay to win this one. They look more like a team and will fight to give Favre his second title. This might be an interesting game, but it won?t excite neutral fans as much as the other possibilities.

New York Giants vs San Diego
The Battle of the Draft. Eli Manning and Philip Rivers where both in the 2004 draft, with Eli being picked first by San Diego. Rivers was the 4th pick by the Giants. That gives this game an interesting twist. And that is about as much excitement this game will bring.

Both teams have had inconsistent seasons. Both have shown they can step up during the playoffs. But these are not the strongest teams coming from their conference. So while there will be a lot to write about this game before the Super Bowl, I don?t think this one will be getting exciting reviews afterwards.

AFC & NFC Championships

Time for some more predictions. The Super Bowl is within reach for four teams, but only two can get through to the big game. Time to find out if I can score better than .500 for a change.

San Diego @ New England
Philip Rivers has a big question mark beside his name, even when he claims he might be able to play. LaDainian Tomlinson is also not a certainty to start, but that looks better than Rivers. And Antonio Gates will more than likely not play as well. This leaves San Diego hurting, even when their replacements did a good job against the Indianapolis Colts last week.

But the Colts are not the Patriots, who have been on a mission since Spygate. They don?t need much to motivate themselves, but the Chargers are doing a good job in that as well. And the personal matters of Randy Moss (he received a restraining order in Florida this week) will not stop them as well. The Patriots showed last week they can beat a team playing at their top level, so they definitely beat the Chargers in this one. Or a miracle would have to happen again.

My pick: New England Patriots by at least 14 points.

New York Giants @ Green Bay
This one will be a good match. The weather in Green Bay doesn?t affect the Giants as much as it did the Seahawks. And Eli Manning looks good on the road this season, proving his abilities last week in the game at Dallas. The problems for the Giants have been there for a few weeks, but it hasn?t weakened them. Eli not forcing himself to throw to Shockey has made him more consistent in his attack.

Green Bay looks confident and plays at their own Lambeau Field. While the weather won?t affect the Giants that much, it?s always good to play at home. And they certainly are the favorites for this game, they have shown that during the last game. Giving the Seahawks the first scores, the Packers never panicked and kept playing their game. And doing that, they are nearly impossible to beat. But the Giants are also nearly impossible to beat on the road, this one will be close.

I have to go with the New York Giants, by 4 points. I think Green Bay has the better team, but the Giants are high on moral and will be tough to beat. Green Bay turned the ball over too often last week, especially during the early stages. When they do that again, New York will run away with it and won?t let them back into the game as easily.

Divisional Playoffs results

Okay, with Sunday’s games behind us, we can take a look at how I did. With Sunday turning into a totally different day than Saturday, I scored not very well over the weekend. Here are my results.

Seattle @ Green Bay
I picked the Green Bay Packers and I was right. After they had settled down, they rushed past the Seahawks and never looked back. And the snow adds something magical to Lambeau Field. I understand why they want to play the SuperBowl either indoors or in the sun, but I think it’s great to see them play in bad weather.

Jacksonville @ New England
I went for the upset, but Jacksonville just couldn’t keep the pressure on Tom Brady and the Patriots. In exchange, the Patriots’ defensive did a great job and closed down the run offense. And after sacking Brady on his first possession, the Jaguars’ defense practically never touched him again. We all knew the Patriots were a great team, but I remained skeptical about their chances to go 19-0. This weekend, they turned me into a believer.

San Diego @ Indianapolis
When you get the chances the Colts got last night, you have to win the game. They have no-one to blame but themselves. You cannot go out on downs when your nose is basically in the end-zone. And if you’re a QB as good as Peyton is, you shouldn’t turn the ball over that many times. Other than that, San Diego did a great job in staying in the game, forcing the Colts to make mistakes. I picked the Colts and they should’ve won this one.

New York Giants @ Dallas
Finally an upset in the NFL that I’ve correctly predicted. But as with the other upset this weekend, this one shouldn’t have happened. Dallas made some mistakes which let the Giants stay in the game. When you’re truly focused, you don’t get a personal foul against you. And you don’t let Toomer catch a ball in the open and let him run for a 52-yards TD reception. Manning played good, I never expected him to play good three games in a row. Hopefully this will get him over the struggles he’s had.

Well, going 2-2 again is not something to be very proud of. But it still beats a losing season.

Prediction for Divisional Playoffs (2)

Yesterday my predictions were split. I correctly identified Green Bay as the winner of their game against Seattle. As predicted, the weather was in favor for the Packers and it created some nice pictures. The Jaguars fell short to the Patriots, who improved to 17-0. I expected the Jaguars to have a better run offense, but it failed due to a good defense from the Patriots. Also, the Patriots’ offensive line was strong and kept Brady safe. And when you let Brady play his best game,  there is no way you can win the game. On with the predictions for today.

San Diego @ Indianapolis
The Charges have beaten the Colts in Indianapolis this season. That was the week after the Colts lost to the Patriots, a week where the Colts didn’t play their best game. Having broken the playoff curse, San Diego is looking for a trip to New England and play against the Patriots.

I don’t think the Colts will get beaten once again. They have too many options in their offensive game and on defense they have shown strength. I expect the Chargers to be swept away by the Colts’ offense and will lose by a margin of at least 10 points. Which is how it should be, since everyone wants a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game.

My pick: Indianapolis Colts

New York Giants @ Dallas
The Giants surprised me last week, in a very positive way. Eli Manning showed that he can be as good as everyone expects him to be and the Giants won at Tampa Bay. Looking pure at the stats, Dallas is the favorite for this game. And they have beaten the Giants twice this year, which gives them even more an edge.

But the Giants are strong away from home. After losing their first road game (at Dallas) they haven’t lost away from home. If the Giants can play the same, faultless game like they did last week, this game will turn into a very interesting match. The wise choice would be to pick the Cowboys, but I’m going with the New York Giants. Just because I want to see another game in the snow at Lambeau Field.

New York Giants beat Tampa Bay

Another pick down the drain. The New York Giants got their first playoff win with Eli Manning as the starting QB. Eli played a flawless game and, as before when Eli plays good, as a result the Giants played a solid game. I predicted that Tampa Bay would win this one, but not competing for three weeks had a terrible effect on that team.

The Buccaneers wanted to play the Giants, because the Giants usually play sloppy games. But tonight Jeff Garcia was the QB who was sloppy, throwing two interceptions and fumbling once. The Giants on the other hand didn’t have a turnover and played relatively clean (only 5 penalties for 41 yards). With the Giants controlling the pace of the game, Tampa Bay didn’t have a chance and lost 24-14.

The New York Giants now have to go to Dallas. The away record for the Giants is impressive at 8-1, but their only loss in an away game was at Dallas.  But that was in the first game of the season and both teams have their fair share of problems. The Giants lost some key players and it’s still uncertain if T.O. can play for the Cowboys next week.It will be an interesting match with the Conference final at stake.

Anyway, congratulations to the Giants, but now I’ve fallen behind on my predictions. The Chargers better beat Tennessee…

My NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions

The regular season is over, the teams are ranked and it’s time to get ready for the first week of playoff action. The games certainly are interesting, especially after some teams tried to get a favorable position for the Divisional games. Well, here are my predictions for the Wild Card Weekend.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh
I like the Steelers, but I don’t like their chances in the playoffs. Their defense is still solid, I expect them to have some troubles on the offensive side of the game. Losing Parker has left the offense unbalanced, which relies basically on the passing game. Roethlisberger has had a great year, but I don’t think it’s good enough.

In my opinion there are only two teams who can stop the Patriots: the Colts and the Jaguars. Their running game is great and they came close to beating the Colts. I think it’s too much for the Steelers to handle, so I pick Jacksonville to win this game.

Washington @ Seattle
Looking purely at the stats won’t give you any indication of the outcome of this game: they’re basically the same. Washington nearly didn’t make it to the playoffs, the division they’re in is strong. Seattle had it pretty easy getting another trip to the playoffs and they play solid football at home.

I think the drive within the Redskins team is big. They have been through a lot this year and will step up. So I’m going for a small upset and pick the Washington Redskins for this game.

Tennessee @ San Diego
This is a tough one to pick. The Chargers have beaten the Titans earlier this year at Tennessee, so that puts them in a more favorable position. On the other hand, the Titans are coming from a solid win at Indianapolis. And we shouldn’t forget the numbers of the Chargers in the playoffs, they haven’t been great in the past years.

That being said, I think the quality of the Chargers roster and the power they bring into the running game will put them ahead of the Titans. My pick goes to the San Diego Chargers.

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay
The Giants played a very good game against the Patriots, with basically nothing on the line other than refusing the Patriots a perfect season. But the Giants, and particularly Eli Manning, have also played very weak games. In a bad week Eli can throw more interceptions than other QB’s have in a season.

I like Tampa Bay, they’re balanced and show that you don’t need big stars to get into the playoffs. Their trip to the playoffs is a true team effort and I like their defense. Offensively not as strong as the Giants, but overall more balanced. Unless the Giants can play two great games in a row, this one definitely will be for the Bucs. I’m sticking with Tampa Bay in this one.