Stats: NFL Overtime

It’s time to revisit the statistics for the NFL overtime again. One of the more controversial rules in the NFL, which supposedly gives an edge to the team winning the coin toss. In this post I’ll take a look at the stats for the 2008 season, with the numbers being collected after 11 weeks into the season.

There have been 11 games which have gone into overtime. Of those 11 games, 9 have been won by a field goal, one by a touchdown after a blocked punt and one game went to a draw. We can clearly conclude that a field goal is the major decider for those games. When we look at the team that first got the ball and finally won the game, 7 times the winner of the coin toss has won the game.

But before we conclude that winning the coin toss gives an advantage, the times the game has been won on the first possession tells a different story. Of the 10 games resulting in a winner, only 5 of those games have been won on the first possession. So up until now, a team has a 50-50 chance of winning the game when going into overtime. And this would mean that the coin toss isn’t the deciding factor at all, at least not this season.

NFL overtime statistics

I did a very quick scan of the 2007 regular season games that went into overtime. A total of 15 games went into overtime, 7 games were won by the team that won the coin-toss on their first possession. Another 2 games were won by the winners of the coin-toss, but not on the first possession.

With under 50% of the games actually being decided on the first possession, you might conclude that the rules are not that flawed after all. Then again, I need to do some more research and put the numbers together for more seasons.

Also, the Denver Broncos had 4 games going into overtime and won twice. The Washington Redskins and the Cleveland Browns have the best multiple overtime game record, they were both 2-2 in the regular season. Washington’s opponent in the playoffs, the Seattle Seahawks, lost their only overtime game to the Cleveland Browns.

NFL overtime rules

With the Wild Card Weekend beginning today, there might be some games going into overtime. And that’s where my problems with the NFL overtime rules surface again. I think the NFL overtime rules are seriously flawed and need to be fixed.

Basically there is only one rule: the team that scores first wins the game. This means that whoever wins the coin-toss is in a great position to win the game. Set up a drive for about 50 yards and you’re in field goal range. If you have the right kicker, this shouldn’t be too much of a problem.

Also, the overtime is limited to one quarter. It is unlikely that a team can run 10 minutes off the clock in one drive, but theoretically you can leave a team with limited time to score after you fail to score. I haven’t seen this happen yet, but if you settle for runs of 3 to 4 yards every time it’s possible.

Other leagues use more advanced rules, which gives either team an equal chance. In NCAA football, both teams get the ball at least once. That way it’s possible to equal the score and still be in the game. This rule has one limitation, you have to score a touchdown and go for a 2-point conversion. If you settle for a single PAT, you might be unlucky when your opponent scores a touchdown and converts 2 points.

The NFL Europe (unfortunately now defunct) had similar rules, where both teams would get the ball at least once. But unlike the NCAA rules, where this rules keeps being applied, in the NFL Europe the NFL rules got applied after both teams had the ball and it was still a tied game.

I don’t have the statistical data yet, but I think that most of the games are won by the team that wins the coin-toss. I’ll put together the data for the 2007 season sometime next week and will include the data, if any, from the playoff games as well.