NFL International Game 2009: Patriots @ Buccaneers

Today the NFL announced the two teams that will be coming to London in 2009. The New England Patriots will visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and most likely play the game in Wembley Stadium. It’s good to see that two strong teams have committed to this game. The Buccaneers are sharing the leading position in the NFC South, the Patriots are struggling a bit but will have Tom Brady back next season. And the two teams won the Superbowl from 2001 to 2004, three for the Patriots and one for the Bucs.

Tickets will go on sale in January, more details on those tickets will be revealed on December 15.

Stats: NFL Overtime

It’s time to revisit the statistics for the NFL overtime again. One of the more controversial rules in the NFL, which supposedly gives an edge to the team winning the coin toss. In this post I’ll take a look at the stats for the 2008 season, with the numbers being collected after 11 weeks into the season.

There have been 11 games which have gone into overtime. Of those 11 games, 9 have been won by a field goal, one by a touchdown after a blocked punt and one game went to a draw. We can clearly conclude that a field goal is the major decider for those games. When we look at the team that first got the ball and finally won the game, 7 times the winner of the coin toss has won the game.

But before we conclude that winning the coin toss gives an advantage, the times the game has been won on the first possession tells a different story. Of the 10 games resulting in a winner, only 5 of those games have been won on the first possession. So up until now, a team has a 50-50 chance of winning the game when going into overtime. And this would mean that the coin toss isn’t the deciding factor at all, at least not this season.

NFL International Series 2008

Today the tickets for the NFL International Series match between the San Diego Chargers and the New Orleans Saints went on sale. I thought I was very quick, but the best seats available were behind the end-zone. Not awful tickets, but being used to sideline seats (row 10) during the NFL Europe matches of the Admirals this will take some adjustment. Most important however, I’m going to visit the game.

Well, now the long waiting for October starts. Can’t we just start with the pre-season next week?

My thoughts on the international NFL games

Today the NFL announced two international games for the 2008 season. First, the Buffalo Bills will start playing one game a year in Toronto for the next five years. This totally makes sense, Toronto is close to Buffalo and attracts 15,000 fans from the Toronto area every home-game. I understand the fears in Buffalo that the Bills will move to Toronto in the near future. That might happen, but then again, the Toronto market is bigger than the Buffalo market. So a move makes sense anyway.

Then, the Saints and the Chargers will play in London in October. Once again great news and a better matchup than the Dolphins and Giants last year. But I don’t understand the choice for Wembley this year. The UK market is big, but across the North Sea there is possibly a bigger market: Germany. I feel that the NFL owners are overlooking the massive attention and reception they will get there. I know that Wembley is bigger than the German stadiums, but in Frankfurt they can handle 60,000 fans. So my feeling is that the NFL is looking at easy, big money (Wembley will sell out again) instead of really transforming the league and getting more international presence.

Now, if only I could get some tickets for the London game

Super Bowl prediction

Being on business trips back-to-back (first to Munich, then to Orlando last week), kept me from posting any new insights on the Super Bowl. Now, being just a couple of hours before the game, it’s time to make a prediction.

Lots has already been written, so a brief analysis will do. The Patriots are the favorite for this game, they’re simply stronger in every aspect of the game. And still being undefeated works in their favor. But the Giants have impressed me on the road and they might achieve what the Steelers did in Super Bowl XL. If the final game of the regular season can be any indication (I don’t think so), the Giants seem to have the weapons to beat the Patriots.

Anyway we look at it, this is one great matchup. The NFC has a contender that is strong enough to at least give us the impression the domination of the AFC will be broken. And the rivalry between New York and Boston is always good for a game. But like the Yankees not being up to the challenge of the Red Sox, I don’t see the Giants walk away with this one either.

So my pick for the Super Bowl XLII Champions: the New England Patriots.

Conference Championships results

Going 2-0 with my predictions for the AFC and NFC Championship games. Definitely an improvement from two weeks scoring 2-2. And I wasn’t that much off with my predictions about the scoring difference. New England beating San Diego by 9 (predicted by 14) and New York beating the Packers by 3 (predicted by 4).

I didn’t see anything from the games, since I was traveling to Munich. But looking at the stats of this blog I could see that at least one game had gone into overtime. Normally this blog has about 30 visits a day, on Sunday that number rose to almost 250 visits. Thank you all!

Possible Super Bowl matches

With the AFC and NFC Championship games being played this weekend, there are only four possible match-ups for the Super Bowl. Some of them look better than others, so let?s take a look at each of them.

Green Bay vs New England
This one is the wet dream of every football fan. The two best quarterbacks this season, both already legends. Brett Favre is one of the best all-time, his stats prove that. And you can?t be any bigger than Favre is right now in Green Bay. Tom Brady is also a legend, getting three Super Bowl victories already. And his stats this season are brilliant, as the game against Jacksonville showed last week.

But can this game live up to the expectations? On paper it looks good, Green Bay certainly has the defense to stop New England. But as we?ve seen, you need more to stop Brady from executing. I don?t think Green Bay has the offensive weapons to stay in this game until the end and the Patriots will simply be too strong. Then again, Favre can create a scoring drive out of nothing. So this one certainly will be interesting.

New York Giants vs New England
Is there a bigger rivalry possible than those between Boston and New York? I know, technically the Patriots are not from Boston, but still. This one will bring up the best and worst in fans in both cities. There is so much more on the line than just a win in the Super Bowl, it?s about the honor of the city.

But looking at the game, I don?t think New England will have a lot of trouble with the Giants. The Giants have been inconsistent all season, even with Manning finding some stability in the final games. They will need Eli to play once again at his best, and even then I don?t give them much of a chance. But you?ll never know, in these rivalry games anything can happen.

And more remarkable, the Giants and the Patriots played each other in the last game of pre-season and the last game of the regular season. Wouldn?t it be nice to have them play the final game of the post-season as well?

Green Bay vs San Diego
This game brings nothing extra to the Super Bowl. San Diego has a nice team and is doing great this post-season, but there is not very much emotion. They did a remarkable job against Indianapolis, but that win can be put completely on the inability of Peyton Manning not to finish it.

Looking at the game, I think Green Bay would prefer the Chargers above the Patriots. They have a good shot at winning the Super Bowl against them. Both teams are about equal in strength, but I favor Green Bay to win this one. They look more like a team and will fight to give Favre his second title. This might be an interesting game, but it won?t excite neutral fans as much as the other possibilities.

New York Giants vs San Diego
The Battle of the Draft. Eli Manning and Philip Rivers where both in the 2004 draft, with Eli being picked first by San Diego. Rivers was the 4th pick by the Giants. That gives this game an interesting twist. And that is about as much excitement this game will bring.

Both teams have had inconsistent seasons. Both have shown they can step up during the playoffs. But these are not the strongest teams coming from their conference. So while there will be a lot to write about this game before the Super Bowl, I don?t think this one will be getting exciting reviews afterwards.

AFC & NFC Championships

Time for some more predictions. The Super Bowl is within reach for four teams, but only two can get through to the big game. Time to find out if I can score better than .500 for a change.

San Diego @ New England
Philip Rivers has a big question mark beside his name, even when he claims he might be able to play. LaDainian Tomlinson is also not a certainty to start, but that looks better than Rivers. And Antonio Gates will more than likely not play as well. This leaves San Diego hurting, even when their replacements did a good job against the Indianapolis Colts last week.

But the Colts are not the Patriots, who have been on a mission since Spygate. They don?t need much to motivate themselves, but the Chargers are doing a good job in that as well. And the personal matters of Randy Moss (he received a restraining order in Florida this week) will not stop them as well. The Patriots showed last week they can beat a team playing at their top level, so they definitely beat the Chargers in this one. Or a miracle would have to happen again.

My pick: New England Patriots by at least 14 points.

New York Giants @ Green Bay
This one will be a good match. The weather in Green Bay doesn?t affect the Giants as much as it did the Seahawks. And Eli Manning looks good on the road this season, proving his abilities last week in the game at Dallas. The problems for the Giants have been there for a few weeks, but it hasn?t weakened them. Eli not forcing himself to throw to Shockey has made him more consistent in his attack.

Green Bay looks confident and plays at their own Lambeau Field. While the weather won?t affect the Giants that much, it?s always good to play at home. And they certainly are the favorites for this game, they have shown that during the last game. Giving the Seahawks the first scores, the Packers never panicked and kept playing their game. And doing that, they are nearly impossible to beat. But the Giants are also nearly impossible to beat on the road, this one will be close.

I have to go with the New York Giants, by 4 points. I think Green Bay has the better team, but the Giants are high on moral and will be tough to beat. Green Bay turned the ball over too often last week, especially during the early stages. When they do that again, New York will run away with it and won?t let them back into the game as easily.

Divisional Playoffs results

Okay, with Sunday’s games behind us, we can take a look at how I did. With Sunday turning into a totally different day than Saturday, I scored not very well over the weekend. Here are my results.

Seattle @ Green Bay
I picked the Green Bay Packers and I was right. After they had settled down, they rushed past the Seahawks and never looked back. And the snow adds something magical to Lambeau Field. I understand why they want to play the SuperBowl either indoors or in the sun, but I think it’s great to see them play in bad weather.

Jacksonville @ New England
I went for the upset, but Jacksonville just couldn’t keep the pressure on Tom Brady and the Patriots. In exchange, the Patriots’ defensive did a great job and closed down the run offense. And after sacking Brady on his first possession, the Jaguars’ defense practically never touched him again. We all knew the Patriots were a great team, but I remained skeptical about their chances to go 19-0. This weekend, they turned me into a believer.

San Diego @ Indianapolis
When you get the chances the Colts got last night, you have to win the game. They have no-one to blame but themselves. You cannot go out on downs when your nose is basically in the end-zone. And if you’re a QB as good as Peyton is, you shouldn’t turn the ball over that many times. Other than that, San Diego did a great job in staying in the game, forcing the Colts to make mistakes. I picked the Colts and they should’ve won this one.

New York Giants @ Dallas
Finally an upset in the NFL that I’ve correctly predicted. But as with the other upset this weekend, this one shouldn’t have happened. Dallas made some mistakes which let the Giants stay in the game. When you’re truly focused, you don’t get a personal foul against you. And you don’t let Toomer catch a ball in the open and let him run for a 52-yards TD reception. Manning played good, I never expected him to play good three games in a row. Hopefully this will get him over the struggles he’s had.

Well, going 2-2 again is not something to be very proud of. But it still beats a losing season.

Prediction for Divisional Playoffs (2)

Yesterday my predictions were split. I correctly identified Green Bay as the winner of their game against Seattle. As predicted, the weather was in favor for the Packers and it created some nice pictures. The Jaguars fell short to the Patriots, who improved to 17-0. I expected the Jaguars to have a better run offense, but it failed due to a good defense from the Patriots. Also, the Patriots’ offensive line was strong and kept Brady safe. And when you let Brady play his best game,  there is no way you can win the game. On with the predictions for today.

San Diego @ Indianapolis
The Charges have beaten the Colts in Indianapolis this season. That was the week after the Colts lost to the Patriots, a week where the Colts didn’t play their best game. Having broken the playoff curse, San Diego is looking for a trip to New England and play against the Patriots.

I don’t think the Colts will get beaten once again. They have too many options in their offensive game and on defense they have shown strength. I expect the Chargers to be swept away by the Colts’ offense and will lose by a margin of at least 10 points. Which is how it should be, since everyone wants a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game.

My pick: Indianapolis Colts

New York Giants @ Dallas
The Giants surprised me last week, in a very positive way. Eli Manning showed that he can be as good as everyone expects him to be and the Giants won at Tampa Bay. Looking pure at the stats, Dallas is the favorite for this game. And they have beaten the Giants twice this year, which gives them even more an edge.

But the Giants are strong away from home. After losing their first road game (at Dallas) they haven’t lost away from home. If the Giants can play the same, faultless game like they did last week, this game will turn into a very interesting match. The wise choice would be to pick the Cowboys, but I’m going with the New York Giants. Just because I want to see another game in the snow at Lambeau Field.