BCS Bowls thoughts (Update)

Haven’t had any time to really think about the BCS Bowl matchups until this weekend. And while a lot has already been written about it, it’s time to add my thoughts to the debate. And I must say, for one thing the BCS bowls all look decent matches with teams that will make an interesting match. I’ll go through the Bowls chronological, starting with the Rose Bowl and ending with the National Championship game. I’ll make some early guesses, my predictions will come closer to the new year.

The Rose Bowl has two interesting teams, that have equally impressive numbers. USC would have played for the National Championship if they hadn’t slipped their attention against Oregon State, but was also lucky that Oregon State lost to Oregon. And the Nittany Lions have had an exceptional season, ending the rule of Ohio State in the Big 10 and nearly getting into the National Championship game as well. Now, the Pac-10 and Big 10 are both conferences which are struggling a bit. In the Pac-10 the only national contender is USC, although almost all of the teams can beat USC for an upset. And the Big 10 has two strong teams (Ohio State and Penn State), with hardly any other teams worth noting. But the tradition of both conferences makes this an interesting game. Both teams are equally impressive on offense and while USC has dominated Big 10 opponents in recent years, it remains to be seen how this game will play out. My guess right now is that Penn State will win this one, which can be considered an upset.

The Orange Bowl has the least inspiring teams participating. Cincinnati won the Big East, but its numbers are not particularly impressive. And Virginia Tech returns to the Orange Bowl as the ACC champion. But to be honest, the ACC lost a lot of its credibility and most teams are in a rebuilding phase. But that makes the Orange Bowl interesting this year. Cincinnati will try to prove that the Big East is a conference that deserves a spot in the BCS Bowls. And Virginia Tech will try to wash away the bad taste of defeat from last year when the Kansas Jayhawks pulled a major upset in Miami. Not the best bowl if we look at it right now, but interesting to see which team will win. My guess is Virginia Tech, no way they will lose twice in a row in what may be considered an upset.

Utah versus Alabama in the Sugar Bowl is the only game in which I clearly see a winner up front. Alabama will be too strong for Utah, I don’t see Utah do what Boise State did against Oklahoma a few years ago. The SEC is one of the strongest conferences and the Alabama defense will send the Utah offense back to bench quickly every time. And while Utah has every right to be in this game, I fear they will get a beating like Hawaii last year. My guess: Alabama all the way.

The Fiesta Bowl has an Ohio State team that in my opinion doesn’t deserve to be in a BCS Bowl. I think Boise State has had a more impressive season and should have gotten this spot. And if Oregon State hadn’t lost to Oregon, this one would have been for USC. But against Texas, it might be for the best that it’s Ohio State and not Boise State. At least the matchup is a bit more balanced, but I fear Texas will be too strong. And Texas still has its eyes on the number one position, so it will be motivated to outperform OSU. Texas has too many weapons for Ohio State to deal with and in big games Ohio State underperforms. So this one will go to the Longhorns.

Florida and Oklahoma both deserve to be competing for the National Championship. While the selection of Oklahoma is not without controversy, after beating Mizzou in an impressive manner there was no way Texas could take this spot. And to be fair, Oklahoma has played top quality football all season, even in their loss against Texas. And a match against Florida is one that we all are looking forward to. Tim Tebow against Sam Bradford, two great offenses and good coaching on both sides of the field. I can’t predict a winner, this one will be close I guess. An early guess would be Florida, I think they are a bit more balanced than Oklahoma. But there really isn’t much that separates the teams and it could easily be Oklahoma that walks away with the win. Definitely a classic in the making, as long as both teams live up to the expectations.

BCS Bowls thoughts

I’ve been giving the BCS Bowls a bit of thought the past few days. Sure, it’s a mess with the Big 12 right now, but it could get much worse and some teams which deserve to play in a BCS bowl can be left out. Certain to play in a BCS Bowl right now are Cincinnati (Big East champ) and Penn State (Big Ten champ). The SEC champion will almost certainly play in the BCS Championship game, I expect the winner of that game to be ranked number 1 in the final polls.

Oklahoma should win their game against Missouri, otherwise the Big 12 will be represented by Texas and Missouri. This scenario would reduce the pain in Missouri a bit for not getting the at-large berth last season, when Kansas was favored over them to go to the Orange Bowl. If Oklahoma beats Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas will play in a BCS Bowl.

The ACC will most likely only have a team in the Orange Bowl, either Boston College or Virginia Tech will play there. I don’t expect Georgia Tech to be favored to go to a BCS Bowl over Boise State. The PAC-10 is most likely for USC, unless they lose to UCLA in which case both Oregon State and USC will play in a BCS Bowl. And as the highest ranked non-BCS team, Utah will go to a BCS Bowl as well.

So we end up with the following teams which are certain of a BCS Bowl: Alabama, Florida, Texas, USC, Cincinnati, Penn State and Utah. For the three remaining spots, one will most certainly go to either Missouri or Oklahoma and another to Boston College or Virginia Tech. The last spot will either go to Oregon State (when UCLA beats USC) or Boise State. I don’t think Georgia Tech and Ball State will have a chance to get in, despite having a great season.

Another big question will be who will play in the National Championship game. Normally, that would be the Big 12 versus the SEC. But what will happen in the following scenarios: Alabama losing a close game to Florida, Oklahoma losing to Missouri and Alabama beating Florida, Florida beating Alabama with a big score and an Oklahoma loss or finally unconvincing wins in both title games and a huge victory by USC? The first scenario might result in a rematch in Miami between Alabama and Florida, while in the second scenario Texas and Alabama most likely will play each other. The two other scenarios are interesting, as in those cases it will be difficult to select two teams from four contenders (Florida, Alabama, Texas and USC).

Big 12 South: The road to KC

The final week of the regular season in the Big 12 didn’t bring many surprises, besides the victory of Kansas over Mizzou. In the South, all three contenders for the championship and the right to play next week in Kansas City for the Big 12 title won their games. Texas had a pretty easy and solid game against Texas A&M. Beating the Aggies 49-9 showed that Texas hasn’t slowed down and is the front-runner in the eyes of many. Especially since the Longhorns have beaten the Sooners on a neutral field.

Oklahoma makes a strong case as well. Beating the ranked 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys by 20 points and scoring over 60 points in the last four games, the Sooners are the team that is most impressive at the end of the regular season. Especially since one of those over-60 games was against Texas Tech, then ranked number 2 in the BCS. The loss against the Longhorns makes this a very tough decision.

Texas Tech barely won the game at home against Baylor, a loss would have handed the Big 12 South to Texas. In my opinion, the performance against Oklahoma takes Texas Tech out of the race for the Big 12 title game. Getting a beating like that shows you’re not good enough to compete in the final weeks of the season. And with the performance against Baylor not impressive as well, it’s basically between the Longhorns and Sooners.

Which team should represent the Big 12 South in Kansas City? In my view that would be the Sooners. Their performance in recent weeks has been impressive and makes the loss against Texas less relevant. Also, they should be rewarded for playing against stronger opponents outside their own conference.

But this doesn’t mean that Texas is completely out of the picture. In fact, if the Sooners go to KC and lose to Mizzou, Texas will play either Alabama or Florida for the National Championship. Missouri made sure they won’t be considered for that game, even if they beat a much stronger opponent from the Big 12 South. Losing to Kansas ended their season at 9-3, they would have had a chance and a good argument if they would have finished 11-2 after the title game. But either Texas or Oklahoma will finish with one loss, so even if Mizzou wins the Big 12 Championship next week, one of those teams will be ranked higher. And the representative of the Big 12 South better makes sure they win the game next week, otherwise their biggest will play in Miami.

Update: The USA Today poll for this week has Oklahoma 1 point ahead of Texas. The waiting is for the Harris poll (which had Oklahoma ahead last week) and the computer rankings. Based on the tougher opponent this week for Oklahoma, I think the Sooners will be going to Kansas City and face Missouri.

Update 2: As expected, Oklahoma jumped ahead of Texas due to the strength of their schedule in the computer rankings. They will now face the Missouri Tigers and every Longhorn fan is praying for an upset by Mizzou next week.

OU messes up Big 12 South

With a big win over Texas Tech, Oklahoma made things complicated in the Big 12. Now a three-way tie and only one week to go, the debates over who wins the Big 12 South surely heat up. An easy way out would be a loss for Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, which would give the division to Texas Tech. This is also the only way out, as I don’t see Texas losing to Texas A&M and/or Texas Tech losing to Baylor.

If all three teams win, the debate will go between Oklahoma and Texas. Texas Tech took to big a beating at OU to be considered the top team in the Big 12. My pick would be OU, as they have been very strong the past few weeks. But an equally convincing argument could be made for Texas.

The Big 12 is clearly the best conference this year. But things are messy and could even go more messy when Mizzou decides to win the Big 12 Championship game. As Mizzou is not a BCS Championship contender, finishing 11-2 (if they beat Kansas next week) still would make them a long shot. In that case even USC can hope for the BCS Championship, especially when Oregon State picks up the Pac-10.

The final weeks of the regular season will be interesting. Now if only my favorites, Notre Dame, could upset USC next week…

Final 2007 rankings

I’ve had a busy week, so I didn’t have time to post my opinion on the final AP rankings. And of course, a chance to compare them with my own rankings. My rankings are presented between the brackets.

1. LSU (1): National champ and the logical pick for the number 1 spot. Lots of talent leaving, so I don’t expect LSU to compete for the title next year. But right now, that doesn’t matter much for the fans.
2. Georgia (3): Like I mentioned, close call between Georgia and USC. It’s just a matter of taste, not very much between them. But with the talent on the team, I expect to see Georgia in the National Championship game next year.
3. USC (2): I preferred USC, but I’m not allowed to vote. Together with Georgia a true contender next year, if they can keep the squad healthy and don’t lose too many players to the draft.
4. Missouri (7): Ranked too high in my opinion, even when they played great against Arkansas. Missouri has a favorable schedule next year (like Kansas this year) and has a good shot at the Big 12 Championship.
5. Ohio State (5): Dropped a bit after disappointing in the BCS game. But still a strong team and looking good for next year. Although I expect Michigan to be a better competitor than this year.
6. West Virginia (4): I valued their win higher, giving them a better spot in my rankings. Good ending to the season, but it looks a bit grim for next year.
7. Kansas (6): Too little respect for the rise of the Jayhawks. Sure, they had a pretty weak schedule. But they were in the race until the last regular game against Missouri. And they surprised everyone with the win in the Orange Bowl. Next year will be tough, with Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech returning on their schedule.
8. Oklahoma (NR): I only ranked 8 teams, I preferred Michigan above Oklahoma. Oklahoma disappointed me in their bowl game, but they are on their way back to the top. Next season looks good, but that’s the case for a number of teams.

The full AP Rankings can be found here. This will most likely complete my posting on college football for a while. But with the draft coming up and the rumors for the new season already starting, that while might turn in a very short while.