BCS Bowls thoughts (Update)

Haven’t had any time to really think about the BCS Bowl matchups until this weekend. And while a lot has already been written about it, it’s time to add my thoughts to the debate. And I must say, for one thing the BCS bowls all look decent matches with teams that will make an interesting match. I’ll go through the Bowls chronological, starting with the Rose Bowl and ending with the National Championship game. I’ll make some early guesses, my predictions will come closer to the new year.

The Rose Bowl has two interesting teams, that have equally impressive numbers. USC would have played for the National Championship if they hadn’t slipped their attention against Oregon State, but was also lucky that Oregon State lost to Oregon. And the Nittany Lions have had an exceptional season, ending the rule of Ohio State in the Big 10 and nearly getting into the National Championship game as well. Now, the Pac-10 and Big 10 are both conferences which are struggling a bit. In the Pac-10 the only national contender is USC, although almost all of the teams can beat USC for an upset. And the Big 10 has two strong teams (Ohio State and Penn State), with hardly any other teams worth noting. But the tradition of both conferences makes this an interesting game. Both teams are equally impressive on offense and while USC has dominated Big 10 opponents in recent years, it remains to be seen how this game will play out. My guess right now is that Penn State will win this one, which can be considered an upset.

The Orange Bowl has the least inspiring teams participating. Cincinnati won the Big East, but its numbers are not particularly impressive. And Virginia Tech returns to the Orange Bowl as the ACC champion. But to be honest, the ACC lost a lot of its credibility and most teams are in a rebuilding phase. But that makes the Orange Bowl interesting this year. Cincinnati will try to prove that the Big East is a conference that deserves a spot in the BCS Bowls. And Virginia Tech will try to wash away the bad taste of defeat from last year when the Kansas Jayhawks pulled a major upset in Miami. Not the best bowl if we look at it right now, but interesting to see which team will win. My guess is Virginia Tech, no way they will lose twice in a row in what may be considered an upset.

Utah versus Alabama in the Sugar Bowl is the only game in which I clearly see a winner up front. Alabama will be too strong for Utah, I don’t see Utah do what Boise State did against Oklahoma a few years ago. The SEC is one of the strongest conferences and the Alabama defense will send the Utah offense back to bench quickly every time. And while Utah has every right to be in this game, I fear they will get a beating like Hawaii last year. My guess: Alabama all the way.

The Fiesta Bowl has an Ohio State team that in my opinion doesn’t deserve to be in a BCS Bowl. I think Boise State has had a more impressive season and should have gotten this spot. And if Oregon State hadn’t lost to Oregon, this one would have been for USC. But against Texas, it might be for the best that it’s Ohio State and not Boise State. At least the matchup is a bit more balanced, but I fear Texas will be too strong. And Texas still has its eyes on the number one position, so it will be motivated to outperform OSU. Texas has too many weapons for Ohio State to deal with and in big games Ohio State underperforms. So this one will go to the Longhorns.

Florida and Oklahoma both deserve to be competing for the National Championship. While the selection of Oklahoma is not without controversy, after beating Mizzou in an impressive manner there was no way Texas could take this spot. And to be fair, Oklahoma has played top quality football all season, even in their loss against Texas. And a match against Florida is one that we all are looking forward to. Tim Tebow against Sam Bradford, two great offenses and good coaching on both sides of the field. I can’t predict a winner, this one will be close I guess. An early guess would be Florida, I think they are a bit more balanced than Oklahoma. But there really isn’t much that separates the teams and it could easily be Oklahoma that walks away with the win. Definitely a classic in the making, as long as both teams live up to the expectations.

BCS Bowls thoughts

I’ve been giving the BCS Bowls a bit of thought the past few days. Sure, it’s a mess with the Big 12 right now, but it could get much worse and some teams which deserve to play in a BCS bowl can be left out. Certain to play in a BCS Bowl right now are Cincinnati (Big East champ) and Penn State (Big Ten champ). The SEC champion will almost certainly play in the BCS Championship game, I expect the winner of that game to be ranked number 1 in the final polls.

Oklahoma should win their game against Missouri, otherwise the Big 12 will be represented by Texas and Missouri. This scenario would reduce the pain in Missouri a bit for not getting the at-large berth last season, when Kansas was favored over them to go to the Orange Bowl. If Oklahoma beats Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas will play in a BCS Bowl.

The ACC will most likely only have a team in the Orange Bowl, either Boston College or Virginia Tech will play there. I don’t expect Georgia Tech to be favored to go to a BCS Bowl over Boise State. The PAC-10 is most likely for USC, unless they lose to UCLA in which case both Oregon State and USC will play in a BCS Bowl. And as the highest ranked non-BCS team, Utah will go to a BCS Bowl as well.

So we end up with the following teams which are certain of a BCS Bowl: Alabama, Florida, Texas, USC, Cincinnati, Penn State and Utah. For the three remaining spots, one will most certainly go to either Missouri or Oklahoma and another to Boston College or Virginia Tech. The last spot will either go to Oregon State (when UCLA beats USC) or Boise State. I don’t think Georgia Tech and Ball State will have a chance to get in, despite having a great season.

Another big question will be who will play in the National Championship game. Normally, that would be the Big 12 versus the SEC. But what will happen in the following scenarios: Alabama losing a close game to Florida, Oklahoma losing to Missouri and Alabama beating Florida, Florida beating Alabama with a big score and an Oklahoma loss or finally unconvincing wins in both title games and a huge victory by USC? The first scenario might result in a rematch in Miami between Alabama and Florida, while in the second scenario Texas and Alabama most likely will play each other. The two other scenarios are interesting, as in those cases it will be difficult to select two teams from four contenders (Florida, Alabama, Texas and USC).

Rose Bowl: Penn State will face Oregon State or USC

The Nittany Lions take the Big Ten in an impressive way, beating Michigan State 49-18 in their last game. And as a result, Penn State will travel to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl. Personally, I like the fact that Ohio State doesn’t go to a major BCS bowl this season. On the national stage, with all eyes focused on them, Ohio State has disappointed the past few years and even this year at USC.

The chances for Penn State in the Rose Bowl depend on their opponent. I don’t think they will have the odds in their favor if they have to play USC. Their chances are much better against Oregon State, as they have beaten them 45-14 in week 2 this season. But a game between Penn State and Oregon State is much less interesting than a game with USC, so I think the Penn State fans are hoping Oregon will upset Oregon State next week.

Final 2007 rankings

I’ve had a busy week, so I didn’t have time to post my opinion on the final AP rankings. And of course, a chance to compare them with my own rankings. My rankings are presented between the brackets.

1. LSU (1): National champ and the logical pick for the number 1 spot. Lots of talent leaving, so I don’t expect LSU to compete for the title next year. But right now, that doesn’t matter much for the fans.
2. Georgia (3): Like I mentioned, close call between Georgia and USC. It’s just a matter of taste, not very much between them. But with the talent on the team, I expect to see Georgia in the National Championship game next year.
3. USC (2): I preferred USC, but I’m not allowed to vote. Together with Georgia a true contender next year, if they can keep the squad healthy and don’t lose too many players to the draft.
4. Missouri (7): Ranked too high in my opinion, even when they played great against Arkansas. Missouri has a favorable schedule next year (like Kansas this year) and has a good shot at the Big 12 Championship.
5. Ohio State (5): Dropped a bit after disappointing in the BCS game. But still a strong team and looking good for next year. Although I expect Michigan to be a better competitor than this year.
6. West Virginia (4): I valued their win higher, giving them a better spot in my rankings. Good ending to the season, but it looks a bit grim for next year.
7. Kansas (6): Too little respect for the rise of the Jayhawks. Sure, they had a pretty weak schedule. But they were in the race until the last regular game against Missouri. And they surprised everyone with the win in the Orange Bowl. Next year will be tough, with Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech returning on their schedule.
8. Oklahoma (NR): I only ranked 8 teams, I preferred Michigan above Oklahoma. Oklahoma disappointed me in their bowl game, but they are on their way back to the top. Next season looks good, but that’s the case for a number of teams.

The full AP Rankings can be found here. This will most likely complete my posting on college football for a while. But with the draft coming up and the rumors for the new season already starting, that while might turn in a very short while.

My rankings after the BCS Bowl games

Time to touch a controversial and highly personal topic: the ranking of the teams. Always open for debate, deciding which team did best is a hard job. Especially when you’re living in Europe and have to rely on little information.

My rankings:

1. LSU Tigers: I have to go with the champs as my number one team. They did a great job this season, battling through tough games.
2. USC Trojans: This one is tricky and I have Georgia as a close third. But for me, the Trojans were more impressive in their win over Illinois.
3. Georgia Bulldogs: Great game against Hawaii. No doubt they should’ve played against the Trojans in the Rose Bowl (or even the National Championship game).
4. West Virginia Mountaineers: They wrecked Oklahoma, the team I thought was one of the best at the end of the season. I was wrong and award the Mountaineers as my number 4 pick.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes: Losing twice in a row when competing for the title is tough. But they are still a solid team.
6. Kansas Jayhawks: I pick Kansas over Missouri. The victory in the Orange Bowl was as unexpected as well-deserved, which impressed me more than Missouri’s game.
7. Missouri Tigers: Very close to Kansas (and I don’t mean geographically) and impressive against Arkansas. They should’ve played in a BCS game, but didn’t. So their status got a little bit bumped.
8. Michigan Wolverines: I know, I rank Michigan probably too high. But they’ve shown they really can play really good football. The game against the Gators was great and showed that Ohio State will have it’s hands full next year.

So, those are my picks. Now we just have to wait for the final AP rankings.